Scenarios for global CO2 emissions

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be reduced by 50 to 80 percent by 2050 to avoid dramatic consequences of global warming.

Bellona has performed a detailed study on scenarios for global CO2 emissions onwards to 2050 to investigate if it is possible to reach this target. A paper wiith the results from the study can be downloaded as a PDF file from the box to the right. A summary of the study is given below.

The development of global CO2 emissions depends on policies and regulatory framework implemented to reduce global warming, and, therefore, scenarios for CO2 emissions show large variations depending on what assumptions are used. According to a business-as-usual scenario established by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global CO2 emissions will more than double from now until 2050. On the other hand, studies from IEA show that establishing incentives and regulatory framework favoring new technologies could reduce global CO2 emissions in 2050 by 27 percent compared to emissions today.

All the scenarios from IEA indicate that 50 to 80 percent reduction in global CO2 emissions will not be achieved. Therefore, sufficient reductions in global CO2 emissions can only be achieved by introducing far more ambitious policies and incentives than addressed by the IEA.