International shipping along Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR) expanded during September, with Chinese and South Korean operators testing new container services between Asia and Europe. Yet the voyages also exposed persistent obstacles to commercial Arctic navigation, including unpredictable ice conditions, delays, high costs and limited demand from cargo owners.

Meanwhile, shipments of equipment from China could help Russia increase production at its sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project, while a Greek shipping company’s interpretation of European sanctions exposed persistent loopholes in restrictions on Russian energy exports.

Russia also launched the first oil shipments from its long-delayed Vostok Oil project, potentially opening another major source of tanker traffic along the Arctic coast.

China and South Korea test Arctic transit routes

Chinese shipping company Sea Legend continued its seasonal China-Europe Arctic Express service, planning eight container voyages through the NSR during the summer-autumn navigation season. The service represented a significant expansion from the company’s lone voyage in 2025. But the September schedule proved difficult to maintain.

Several departures were delayed, ships were substituted, and some voyages took approximately 30 days to traverse the NSR rather than the anticipated 20. Two vessels originally expected to reach European destinations instead called at Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg.

Sea Legend also brought forward its final departures because of forecasts of deteriorating ice conditions.

Another Chinese operator, NewNew Shipping, continued services connecting China with Russian Arctic ports. Its Xin Xin Hai 2 arrived in Arkhangelsk on September 22 carrying 880 containers of automobile components, becoming the first vessel to arrive under the Arctic Express No. 1 service.

However, Bellona’s shipping analysis found that only one of the 12 widely publicized voyages between China and Arkhangelsk had been completed by the time of its review.

South Korea also entered the market with an experimental voyage by PanStar Line’s PanStar Acro, which departed Busan on August 22 and reached Felixstowe, Britain, on September 12. The vessel completed the 21-day journey without icebreaker assistance, although dense drifting ice near Wrangel Island forced its crew to suspend nighttime navigation temporarily.

Its return voyage revealed another commercial obstacle: the operator failed to attract European export cargo and instead carried 1,743 empty containers back to South Korea.

Research by the Korea Maritime Institute suggests that transporting a container through the NSR can cost approximately 55% more than via the Suez Canal, largely because Arctic conditions restrict vessel capacity and increase insurance and operating expenses.

Bellona’s assessment is skeptical.

“Events surrounding the development of Arctic shipping in South Korea show that this is a political project rather than an economic one,” Bellona’s wrote. “There is no visible interest in shipping cargo through the NSR among Korean and European cargo owners or shipping companies.”

Bellona argues that the disappointing commercial results undermine claims that Arctic container transit is becoming a viable alternative to established routes.

Chinese equipment and Greek shipping sustain Russian LNG

While container transit faces uncertainty, Russian LNG exports continue to benefit from Asian demand and foreign maritime services.

In September, two cargo vessels, Glory and Bright, departed China carrying the final two power-generation modules manufactured for the second production train of Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 project. The modules were produced by China’s Zhoushan Wison Offshore and Marine, which was sanctioned by the United States in January 2025 for supporting the Russian project.

According to shipping publication gCaptain, Arctic LNG 2’s second train has been operating with incomplete power-generation equipment, limiting output to roughly half its designed annual capacity of 6.6 million tonnes.

The additional modules could therefore help increase production, although their delivery and installation had not been confirmed when Bellona completed its review.

Bellona’s experts believe the shipments point toward deeper Russian-Chinese energy cooperation.

“Developments surrounding Arctic LNG 2 suggest that Russia has managed to reach an agreement with China on long-term LNG supplies from the plant,” they wrote.

They expect Novatek may complete the second train and expand deliveries to China, although shortages of ice-class LNG carriers could constrain exports.

At the same time, Greek shipping group Dynagas LNG Partners expects to continue transporting Russian LNG despite European sanctions.

In its September financial report, Dynagas argued that exemptions covering contracts signed before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine would permit its Yenisei River and Lena River gas carriers to continue serving Yamal LNG customers outside the European Union.

The company acknowledged that regulators might interpret those exemptions differently. Separately, the Financial Times reported that British insurer NorthStandard continued providing coverage for three Dynagas LNG carriers sanctioned by the United Kingdom, exploiting distinctions between port restrictions and prohibitions on maritime services.

Bellona warned that such arrangements weaken sanctions enforcement.

“This situation reduces the effectiveness of sanctions and leaves Russia considerable opportunities to lobby for its interests in Europe,” its experts wrote.

Vostok Oil begins shipments despite doubts over expansion

On September 6, Russia formally launched commercial shipments from Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project, with the tanker Valentin Pikul receiving the first cargo at the new Bukhta Sever terminal on the Taymyr Peninsula.

Four shipments were recorded during September, including two vessels heading east along the NSR. Rosneft now projects production of 30 million tonnes annually by the end of 2027 and 50 million tonnes by 2030, although both targets fall short of earlier ambitions. The project’s expansion also threatens to intensify industrial pressure on the environmentally vulnerable Taymyr region.

Taken together, September’s developments reveal an increasingly divided future for the Northern Sea Route: uncertain prospects for international container transit, but growing Russian determination to expand fossil-fuel exports through the Arctic despite sanctions, logistical constraints and environmental risks.