Ensuring complete and reliable access to environmental information in Russia has never been fully guaranteed. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, it became even more difficult. Some information ceased to be published altogether, such as daily oil production data and annual reports from certain industrial companies. Independent environmental organizations have been banned or closed.   

The Arctic region plays a crucial role in comprehending the process of global climate change. Russia owns approximately one-third of its territory, including the exclusive economic zone of the Arctic Ocean. To understand and examine trends, we monitor new legislation, the plans of industry, the Northern Sea Route, international economic sanctions, accidents, and emergencies in the Russian Arctic, as well as provide commentary on the news. Subscribe to our mailing list to make sure you don’t miss the next digest.

Our previous monthly highlights for August can be found here.

In this issue:

ENVIRONMENTAL AND CLIMATE ISSUES OF THE ARCTIC
1. Russian scientists forecast Arctic ice disappearance by 2090
2. Melting permafrost expected to raise fire risk in Siberia and Canada by 2050
3. Melting permafrost in the Arctic could cause over 10 trillion rubles in damage by 2050
4. Scientists link global warming to harmful vegetation growth in Arctic lakes

HEIGHTENED INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC
5. Depletion of large deposits drives resource exploration in the Arctic and Far East, says Russian natural resources ministry
6. Russian energy minister reports on oil and gas reserves in Arctic waters
7. Far East and Arctic Development Corporation supports rare earth metals mining project
8. A large gas chemical complex for fertilizer production is set to launch in Vorkuta by 2031

INTERNATIONAL SITUATION IN THE ARCTIC AND SANCTIONS AFFECTING RUSSIAN ACTIVITIES IN THE ARCTIC REGION
9. Novatek considers repurposing Obskiy LNG for ammonia and urea production
10. U.S. imposes secondary sanctions on two Indian companies involved in Arctic LNG 2 project
11. UK sanctioned 10 ‘shadow fleet’ vessels for evading Russian oil export restrictions
12. UK sanctioned two companies and five vessels involved in Russian LNG shipments
13. India declines to purchase LNG from Arctic LNG 2 project
14. Arctic LNG 2 struggles to secure buyers amid sanctions concerns

NORTHERN SEA ROUTE AND SHIPPING
15. Russia increases oil shipments through Arctic, surpassing last year’s levels
16. Large chinese container ships passed through the Northern Sea Route
17. On September 25, the second subsidized cabotage voyage along the Northern Sea Route for this year was completed
18. Russia is set to invest 175 billion rubles in developing the Great Northern Sea Route between 2025 and 2027
19. Norilsk Nickel to invest 44 billion rubles in NSR development in 2024-2027
20. An agreement to construct the Naiba seaport in Yakutia was signed at the 2024 Eastern Economic Forum
21. Over 600 legal violations found during a review of the implementation of the Northern Sea Route development plan
22. Bellona appealed to the Norwegian Prime Minister not to support the development of the Northern Sea Route, citing environmental and political concerns

ACCIDENTS AND EMERGENCIES IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC

Environmental and climate issues of the Arctic

Russian scientists forecast Arctic ice disappearance by 2090 ↑

Researchers from the Marchuk Institute of Computational Mathematics at the Russian Academy of Sciences and MIPT have projected climate changes in Northern Eurasia using two climate models with different sensitivities to rising CO₂ levels. The more sensitive model predicts a temperature increase of over 6°C by the end of the 21st century, potentially leading to a complete disappearance of Arctic ice between 2080 and 2090. The findings were published in Climate Dynamics.

Melting permafrost expected to raise fire risk in Siberia and Canada by 2050 ↑

Climatologists from South Korea’s Institute of Basic Science have studied how thawing permafrost will impact soil processes in the Arctic and nearby regions. Their analysis suggests that if global warming continues at the current rate, permafrost thawing will reduce soil moisture in western Siberia and northern Canada, significantly increasing the likelihood of forest and peat fires.

The study assessed 50 climate change scenarios over the past two centuries and the next 75 years to understand these effects on regional ecosystems. The results were published in Nature Communications.

Melting permafrost in the Arctic could cause over 10 trillion rubles in damage by 2050 ↑

At the Eastern Economic Forum, Mikhail Zheleznyak, Director of the Permafrost Institute under the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, presented findings on the financial impact of permafrost thawing in Russia’s Arctic Zone. Permafrost experts estimate that minimum damages to residential and industrial structures alone could reach 7 to 10 trillion rubles by 2050. These estimates exclude potential damage to oil and gas infrastructure and future investments in northern Russian territories.

Scientists link global warming to harmful vegetation growth in Arctic lakes ↑

Researchers from the Vernadsky Institute of Geochemistry and Analytical Chemistry have found that climate change is driving the growth of harmful vegetation in remote Arctic lakes. Studying over 100 water bodies between 1990 and 2023, the team discovered that climate shifts are increasing concentrations of phosphorus, nitrogen, and organic matter, stimulating phytoplankton growth even in lakes untouched by direct human activity. This was reported by the Russian Ministry of Education and Science.

Heightened industrial activity in the Russian Arctic

Depletion of large deposits drives resource exploration in the Arctic and Far East, says Russian natural resources ministry ↑

At a meeting with President Vladimir Putin, Natural Resources Minister Alexander Kozlov reported that major, easily accessible deposits, including those in Siberia and central Russia, are nearly exhausted. This depletion is pushing geologists to search for new resources in the Arctic and remote regions of the Far East and Siberia, where only 35% and 45% of the land, respectively, have been geologically explored.

Russian energy minister reports on oil and gas reserves in Arctic waters ↑

During Russian Energy Week, Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev provided updated figures on confirmed hydrocarbon reserves on Russia’s Arctic shelf. Current proven reserves stand at 17 billion tons of oil and 85 trillion cubic meters of gas. At current production rates, these reserves are projected to last approximately 32 years for oil and over 130 years for gas.

Far East and Arctic Development Corporation supports rare earth metals mining project ↑

At the Eastern Economic Forum, the Far East and Arctic Development Corporation signed a cooperation agreement with KATEN-GEO for the exploration and extraction of rare earth and other valuable metals in Russia’s Far East and Arctic regions.

Under this agreement, KATEN-GEO will access strategic mineral deposit data to assess the viability of using its new metal extraction technology. If successful, the project will move forward with resource licensing and the construction of production facilities to extract rare earth and other critical metals in these regions.

The corporation will support KATEN-GEO in obtaining residency status in the advanced development territory and will assist in the overall implementation of the project.

A large gas chemical complex for fertilizer production is set to launch in Vorkuta by 2031 ↑

An agreement to develop the Vorkuta Gas Chemical Complex, with an investment of 200 billion rubles, was signed at the Eastern Economic Forum. The project aims to complete construction by 2025, with production starting in 2031.

Gazprom will supply the complex with raw materials, securing an annual gas supply of 1.5 billion cubic meters. The primary outputs will be ammonia and urea, with production capacities of 1.2 million tons and 1.7 million tons per year, respectively.

Plans call for product transport via the Northern Sea Route, which necessitates building 200 kilometers of railway and a port in Ust-Kara. These infrastructure additions will require further investments—40 billion rubles for the railway and 50–60 billion rubles for the port—funded by AEON Corporation. Additionally, AEON, which owns Vorkutaugol, is exploring the construction of two new coal mines to develop reserves of 300 billion tons, capitalizing on the planned infrastructure for coal exports.

Bellona’s comment:

«The steady flow of news on Arctic resource development underscores a continued focus on hydrocarbons, including plans for new onshore and offshore fields to replace depleted reserves.

In response to sanctions on Russian gas, companies are increasingly shifting toward the production and export of gas-based products, with ammonia as a primary focus. However, it remains uncertain whether Russia can secure a meaningful share of the global ammonia market, given that leading producers—the United States, China, and countries in the Middle East—have already made significant investments in this area. Moreover, global demand for ammonia has yet to show clear signs of substantial growth»

International situation in the Arctic and sanctions affecting Russian activities in the Arctic region

Novatek considers repurposing Obskiy LNG for ammonia and urea production ↑

Novatek is halting the construction of its major LNG projects in Murmansk and Sabetta due to escalating sanctions. Plans for Murmansk LNG and Obskiy LNG are under review, with the Obskiy gas chemical complex development still underway. However, there is now a possibility that the complex could be repurposed to produce ammonia and urea instead.

U.S. imposes secondary sanctions on two Indian companies involved in Arctic LNG 2 project ↑

On September 6, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on two Indian shipping companies, Gotik Energy Shipping Co and Plio Energy Cargo Shipping OPC PVT LTD, for their alleged involvement in the export of liquefied natural gas from the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project. Two LNG tankers owned by these companies, New Energy and Mulan, were also sanctioned.

New Energy reportedly used illegal methods, such as disabling its automatic identification system, to obscure its activities. This allowed the vessel to transfer cargo from the Pioneer on August 25, two days after the Pioneer was blocked by the U.S.

UK sanctioned 10 ‘shadow fleet’ vessels for evading Russian oil export restrictions ↑

On September 11, the UK sanctioned 10 vessels accused of using illicit tactics to bypass Western sanctions on Russian oil exports. The sanctioned tankers include Nikolay Zuyev, Vladimir Tikhonov, Leonid Loza, Olympic Prospect, Zaliv Aniva, SCF Vankor, SCF Baltica, NS ASIA, NS CLIPPER, and NS CORONA. These ships are now banned from UK ports, and their UK shipping registrations will be revoked.

According to the UK Foreign Office, the sanctions target key offenders in Russian oil transport. Nikolay Zuyev, Zaliv Aniva, and NS ASIA alone have reportedly moved over $5 billion worth of Russian oil since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022.

UK sanctioned two companies and five vessels involved in Russian LNG shipments ↑

On September 26, the UK added two companies—White Fox Ship Management (UAE) and Ocean Speedstar Solutions OPC (India)—to its sanctions list, along with five LNG tankers transporting Russian LNG, including from the Arctic LNG 2 project. The targeted vessels are Asya Energy, Pioneer, North Sky, SCF La Perouse, and Nova Energy. These are the first UK sanctions specifically aimed at LNG tankers, as previous restrictions only targeted companies.

India declines to purchase LNG from Arctic LNG 2 project ↑

On September 27, Indian Oil Minister Pankaj Jain announced that India would not purchase liquefied natural gas from the Arctic LNG 2 project, stating that the country “does not buy sanctioned goods,” according to Reuters.

Arctic LNG 2 struggles to secure buyers amid sanctions concerns ↑

The Arctic LNG 2 project is facing challenges in finding buyers for its liquefied natural gas, as importers appear wary of potential U.S. sanctions, according to ship tracking data and satellite imagery reported by the Financial Times. Although tankers began loading LNG in August, none have delivered their cargo to a foreign port so far. Experts suggest that Russian LNG is instead being diverted to storage, potentially to facilitate export before the Northern Sea Route freezes.

• Pioneer, the first vessel to load LNG from Arctic LNG 2 on August 1, transferred its cargo to the New Energy tanker off Egypt’s coast. New Energy reportedly offloaded the LNG at the Saam floating storage facility in Russia’s Murmansk region on September 25.
• After loading at Arctic LNG 2 on August 10, Asya Energy sailed toward the Norwegian Sea before returning to Russian waters, where it also appeared to offload at Saam FSF. On September 15, the vessel loaded another batch at Arctic LNG 2 and set out east along the Northern Sea Route. It may be en route to buyers in northern Asia, though it could also be planning to offload at a terminal or perform a ship-to-ship transfer to obscure the cargo’s origin, mitigating risks for end users amid sanctions.
• Following its August 25 load, Everest Energy appears to have delivered gas to the Saam FSF in Murmansk. It then returned to Arctic LNG 2, loaded additional LNG, and headed east along the Northern Sea Route, likely transferring its cargo to the Koryak FSF in Kamchatka.

As of the end of September, six LNG shipments had been dispatched from Arctic LNG 2, but none have yet been unloaded at foreign destinations.

Bellona’s comment:

«While international sanctions have effectively stalled Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 gas project, as well as the planned Murmansk and Obskiy LNG facilities, their impact on Russian oil sales—Russia’s main economic lifeline—has been minimal. The case of Arctic LNG 2 demonstrates the effectiveness of sanctions, as India has joined China in refusing to buy sanctioned LNG.

In contrast, the lack of similarly impactful sanctions on Russian oil highlights the reluctance of Western economies to move away from oil as a primary energy source. Over the past decade, EU oil and oil product consumption has remained steady, with only a brief decline during the COVID-19 pandemic.

This hesitant approach toward Russian oil has inadvertently fueled the growth of a “shadow fleet” and increased oil spills at sea, visible in satellite images along Europe’s coastline»

Northern Sea Route and shipping

Russia increases oil shipments through Arctic, surpassing last year’s levels ↑

In September, crude oil shipments along the Northern Sea Route have already outpaced the entire season’s total from last year, Bloomberg reports. At least 15 tankers have transported approximately 10.7 million barrels of crude oil via the NSR, compared to about 10.5 million barrels shipped by 14 vessels throughout last year’s navigation season.

Large chinese container ships passed through the Northern Sea Route ↑

The NewNew Star, a 231-meter container ship, sailed from China’s Nansha port to St. Petersburg, being the largest ice-free container ship on this route. It entered the NSR waters on September 4, and on September 6 its escort was completed by the nuclear icebreaker Ural at the western edge of the East Siberian Sea.

The 294-meter Flying Fish 1, a Panamax container ship, also navigated the NSR, traveling from St. Petersburg to Qingdao, China. Departing on September 3, it delivered 664 twenty-foot and 1,727 forty-foot containers to China by September 26, surpassing the NewNew Star in cargo volume.

On September 25, the second subsidized cabotage voyage along the Northern Sea Route for this year was completed ↑

FSUE Atomflot’s press service reported that the Mys Zhelaniya vessel delivered 9,985 tons of essential goods along the Arkhangelsk-Pevek-Arkhangelsk route. This voyage is part of the federal “Development of the Northern Sea Route” project, which includes three similar voyages planned for this year.

Russia is set to invest 175 billion rubles in developing the Great Northern Sea Route between 2025 and 2027 ↑

On September 30, the Russian government presented its draft budget for 2025 and the planning period for 2026-2027, allocating 175 billion rubles for the development of the Great Northern Sea Route. This budget includes investments in seaport infrastructure, with 3.6 billion rubles earmarked for navigation and hydrographic support and 1.28 billion rubles for establishing regular NSR transportation.

Norilsk Nickel to invest 44 billion rubles in NSR development in 2024-2027 ↑

On September 4 at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Norilsk Nickel Vice President Andrey Grachev announced the company’s plans to invest over 44 billion rubles in modernizing two key Arctic transport assets connected to the Northern Sea Route: the Murmansk and Polar branches. The Murmansk branch features a port terminal, an icebreaker fleet, and ARC-7 class vessels, while the Polar branch includes a terminal at the port of Dudinka.

An agreement to construct the Naiba seaport in Yakutia was signed at the 2024 Eastern Economic Forum ↑

On September 5, representatives from Yakutia and the Far East and Arctic Development Corporation finalized the agreement at the forum in Vladivostok. The future deep-water port, to be located in Yakutia’s Bulunsky district, will feature dedicated areas for both liquid and dry cargo, along with modern infrastructure such as fuel tanks and pumping stations.

With an anticipated annual cargo turnover of up to 30 million tons, the port is expected to become a major hub on Arctic transport routes and drive the development of extractive industries, including the Kyuchus industrial cluster, where gold, tin, and rare metals are slated for mining. Total investment in the port’s construction is estimated at 85 billion rubles (around 850 million EUR).

Over 600 legal violations found during a review of the implementation of the Northern Sea Route development plan ↑

Speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum on September 6, Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov reported more than 600 breaches of budget laws and contract regulations, along with instances of budget fund theft through falsified work reports while implementing the Northern Sea Route development plan.

To support Arctic entrepreneurs and enhance investment appeal, oversight has been implemented in areas with preferential business regimes, such as blocking unlawful inspections targeting activities of the Arctic zone residents.

Krasnov also highlighted environmental issues, including improper oil depot operations, failures in fuel and lubricant storage protocols, industrial fishing violations, environmental pollution, and non-compliance with water protection regulations.

Bellona’s comment:

«This year’s nearly completed navigation along the Northern Sea Route shows that Russia primarily uses the route for exporting minerals mined in the Arctic and for shipping oil to China. However, the year-round navigation anticipated by Russia’s First Deputy Minister for the Development of the Far East and Arctic, Gadzimagomed Guseinov, on May 30 will not materialize.

Despite Arctic Ocean ice coverage reaching near-record lows during the summer and fall, new ice started forming unusually early due to large amounts of residual ice, especially in the eastern parts of the route. This has led to an earlier-than-expected close of the navigation season»

Bellona appealed to the Norwegian Prime Minister not to support the development of the Northern Sea Route, citing environmental and political concerns ↑

In an open letter to the Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, Bellona argued that Kirkenes should not be used as a logistics hub by the China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO) for transporting cargo along the Northern Sea Route. Bellona also asked Mr Store to send a message to the Chinese authorities that the NSR use is currently unacceptable due to environmental and political concerns.

The letter was sent ahead of Prime Minister Støre’s visit to China from September 9-11, following media reports of discussions between the port of Kirkenes and COSCO about establishing a transport hub for the Northern Sea Route.

Bellona’s arctic experts have warned that shipping through this route could seriously harm Arctic ecosystems and climate. They also noted that increased international transit would bring financial gains to Russia, potentially boosting its military budget.

Although the Prime Minister’s Office stated that the Northern Sea Route and related environmental issues would not be discussed during the visit, Mr. Støre spoke with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao about maritime cooperation. The Norwegian government later clarified in a press-release that any partnership with Chinese businesses in Kirkenes would not be at the expense of national security.

Accidents and emergencies in the Russian Arctic ↑

In September, the Arkhangelsk region saw a record number of 107 forest fires.

As of early September, fuel oil from a spill occurred on August 11 remained along the shore of Kola Bay.

In Komi, significant air pollution was recorded due to gas flaring at Lukoil’s Bayandynskoye field.

On September 5, the ship Akademik Nikolay Strakhov lost power due to a main engine failure and had to halt in the Kara Sea in the Arctic. Assistance arrived on September 19, and the vessel was towed back to the port of Murmansk by September 27.

On September 9, an oil film again appeared on the surface of the Solombalka River in Arkhangelsk.