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McKinsey publish report on GHG abatement potential for Poland

Poltegor.pl

Publish date: December 26, 2009

Written by: Veronica Webster

BRUSSELS – McKinsey & Co. has published a report containing a greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement cost curve which summarises the technical opportunities available for Poland to meet necessary CO2 emission reductions by 2030, at a cost of up to €80 per tonne CO2 emitted.

The results show that for coal-dependent Poland, CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) represents a considerable abatement opportunity which is due to become greater as the technology develops and moves forward.

The reports is good news for Poland in the wake of Copenhagen’s climate talks, which ended with an accord that each participating country set its own emissions reductions and climate mitigation strategies in the run up to an international legally binding agreement within the next few years. As a member of the EU bloc, Poland’s dependency on coal has caused friction with other EU Member States that want it to cement higher emissions goals.

The report models five potential scenarios and discusses the role of a range of abatement measures – including CO2 capture and storage, biogas or onshore wind energy.

The cost curve for Poland shows the reduction potential of each specific abatement measure in a specific year compared to a business-as-usual scenario (BAU).

The cost curve can be used to compare the size and cost of opportunities, assess the relative importance of sectors, and estimate the overall size of the emissions reduction opportunity.

It can also be used to test the impact on emission reductions of implementation scenarios, energy prices, interest rates, and technological developments.

CCS represents an abatement opportunity of approximately 36 million tonnes (Mt) CO2 per year by 2030, which is 15 percent of the total potential abatement.

Just over a half of the GHG abatement potential – amounting to 20 million tonnes of CO2 emitted – is linked to equipping coal power plants with CCS. The remaining 16 million tonnes could be achieved in industrial sectors, with the largest potential in iron and steel – equating to approximately 7 million tonnes – and in chemicals – approximately 6 million tonnes.

The report stresses that if CCS technology develops and moves forward in a speedy manner – with technical and legislative difficulties being solved in relation to transport and storage of CO2 – then capture and storage potential in Poland could be considerably greater, resulting in an increase in abatement potential from 36 to approximately 74 million tons.

Read the full report here.